The One Metric That Determines A Game's Success: What Developers Must Track

Recently, I was asked a fun question by Sergei Vasiuk about what the most important metric is that a game should pay attention to. Even though I believe there are multiple metrics worth considering, I like these kinds of fun questions because they force us to think critically about a problem.

A Glitch, we are all about data and metrics, and for that one metric, the answer I gave him might surprise you because it depends on two very important variables:

1. The type of game (Premium vs. Free To Play)
2. The stage of the game (Pre-Launch vs. Post-Launch)

In this article, we are going to cover the most important metric for games, who Sergei Vasiuk is, and why the type of game and stage matters for that metric.

Industry Veteran Sergei Vasiuk

Over time, I’ve learned quite a few things from talking to publishers that make over $100 million a year in revenue. Once such individual to offer his time and insights is Sergei.

Sergei’s experience at Wargaming reveals key lessons for developers of all sizes. Let’s explore how big publishers like Wargaming use data—and what indie and solo devs can learn from them.

Sergei has been at Wargaming for the past 12 years, and the publisher made $1.1 billion in 2023. During his time at Wargaming, Sergei has shifted through several different roles—from product manager, to marketing, to publishing, and to retention. He’s learned a lot and put all his knowledge into his book 'Running A Successful Live Service Game'.

From our conversations, one of the key takeaways I see large publishers like Wargaming leverage (that smaller publishers, solo devs, and indie devs often miss) is deep knowledge of their data, from marketing, retention, to in-game analytics. And most importantly, how all this data connects to a game's success.

Sergei talked about how Wargaming values data so much that they have built out their entire data pipeline internally—tracking everything and knowing how every metric performs down to the tiniest detail. The publisher has been doing deep tracking and analysis of their data for years.

For big publishers, data is king and drives every decision. You will also notice that many large publishers do not share important data insights because how valuable that information is. This has led to missing knowledge and lack of insight of important areas like gaming marketing, which would be extremely valuable if indies and solos had access to the same data.

Which brings us to the question of the most important metric.

Pre-Launched Games & Pre-Sales Dependency

Whether the game is a premium title or a free-to-play title, the most important metric to focus before a game is launched on is wishlists/pre-orders. Games are one of the industries that relies heavily on something called “Pre-Sales Dependency,” which is the degree to which an organization or product relies on its pre-sales to convert opportunities into actual sales for the product’s or organization's success.

Pre-sales are important in quite a few industries, including:

• Gaming – Pre-orders gauge demand, fund development, and influence marketing strategy.
• Consumer Electronics – Pre-sales determine production volume and reduce inventory risk.
• SaaS & Enterprise Software – Pre-sales validate product-market fit and secure early revenue.
• Film & Entertainment – Box office pre-sales and streaming deals help fund production costs.
• Automotive – Pre-orders help manufacturers forecast demand and secure financing.
• Aerospace & Defense – Contracts and pre-sales dictate manufacturing schedules.
• Fashion & Apparel – Limited-run and made-to-order models minimize excess inventory.
• Publishing (Books & Comics) – Pre-sales drive print runs and influence bestseller rankings.
• Crowdfunding & Startups – Early backers validate concepts and provide initial funding.
• Event Ticketing – Pre-sales determine venue capacity, marketing spend, and logistics.

The biggest mistake we see many (not all) indie and solo developers make—one that is a contributing factor to why 80% of developers not making over $5k after spending years developing their games—is not launching their storefronts (Steam, Epic, etc.) as early as possible, collecting wishlists a year or more before the game is launched and consistently marketing their games through development. All practices AAA games employ.

Back in 2014, "build it and they will come" was real. Creating a good game was all you needed to do, and you were competing against maybe 1,500 other games in a year and less than 6% of games made under $5k, ROI was huge.

Fast forward to 2025: AI and better tools have lowered the barrier to entry. With the industry growing at 30% year-over-year, a game now competes with 30,000 other games across all platforms annually. As business practices haven't evolved with the changing landscape, failure rate has drastically increased.

AAA games know that the longer time the game is collecting wishlists and the more time they have to market, the higher sales is going to be at launch.

We wrote this article on how to jump-start your social media strategy for organic growth and a data-driven approach. We’ve seen games get between 10 to 100 wishlists a day.

Before a game is launched, the most important metric to focus on is wishlist additions and the game needs to be consistently marketing throughout the life time of its development. When the game does launch, these wishlists become the momentum and primary driving force behind its success. So start collecting wishlists as far out as you can—even if that’s four years in advance.

If you haven't launched your storefront, this article is talking to you!

Post-Launch Premium Games

After the game’s launch, the metric I believe is most important for premium games is their ratio of positive reviews to negative ones. Having a lot of positive reviews does three very important things for your game:

1. Sales: Positive reviews create sales. Not only will algorithms on platforms like Steam promote your game further, but people will also talk about your game, resulting in the game effectively selling itself. This SHOULD NOT be confused with the misconception of "just build a great game and it will sell itself" as even the highest quality games still requires marketing to create enough momentum for a network effect to sell itself.
2. Funding: Positive reviews prove you’ve built an amazing game. This changes your position as a developer in the eyes of publishers—and possibly investors—who may help secure funding for future projects.
3. DLC and Sequels: If people love your game, you’ve likely created a fanbase. Fanbases are willing to spend money on DLCs and sequels, which should be much easier to market with that built-in audience.

To foster these positive reviews, make sure you get feedback and conduct playtesting during development so you can deliver a game that people will love. Do not develop in secrecy without getting outside input and iterating. And if users start to give consistent negative feedback, try to address it quickly as possible in your game.

Post-Launch Free-To-Play Games

Free-to-play (F2P) games are slightly different, and the metric I would pick for them is retention—whether it’s 1-day, 7-day, 15-day, 31-day, 3-month, 6-month, and so on. Typically, free-to-play games monetize through advertising, selling skins, upgrades, NFTs and other monetization strategies that take place while in the game.

In the free-to-play business model, the user generally needs to continue playing the game for a certain period before generating any meaningful revenue. Therefore, the game must keep players coming back repeatedly in order to hit its revenue goals. That’s why focusing on retention is critical for F2P.

One area Sergei’s book focuses on is retention and what he learned at Wargaming, as the publisher has mastered retention. It all comes down to having enough data about your game to see which features create that retention. He also explores strategies around modding your game for UGC (User-Generated Content), which helps create communities—another great way to boost retention.

Data-Driven Success: How to Leverage Metrics Like the Big Publishers

Ultimately, your most important metric hinges on both the type of game you’re making (premium vs. free-to-play) and where you are in your development cycle (pre-launch vs. post-launch). For premium titles before launch, nurturing your wishlists or pre-orders is key to building buzz and ensuring a successful release. After launch, positive reviews help propel sales, funding opportunities, and future expansions or sequels. On the free-to-play side, retention is king, as continued engagement drives long-term revenue and community growth.

No matter your game’s model, remember that data-driven decisions and community feedback are essential at every step of the process. By prioritizing the right metrics at the right times, you’ll set yourself up for a much greater chance of success—just like the big publishers do.